02-06-2013, 06:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2013, 06:32 PM by Yawackhary.)
Sadly I think the gaming market is going to be pretty grim at least judging from both where I come from and what is happening but not everything is bad and who knows it might change.
While I don't see consoles completely dying out, they will be more of a niche (more than now, probably something like Wiz/OpenPandora niche) since more people have PCs and phones, the former will be increased by Steam while the latter market will have its bubble bust in a couple of years time. Angry Birds will be gone by 2016 at least due to over saturation. The retail market (as in boxed games) will disappear almost completely apart from a few online sites since currently two retail places are on the verge of closure in the UK and when they go, its going to be supermarkets (one that from looking more or less stopped stocking games except Xbox 360 stuff), Game that probably will go if they aren't careful, lucky enough to find an indie store [there doesn't seem to be one where I live, nearly one is about 12 miles away in a little market town], the dodgy Grainger Games, CeX that will close down if the anti-second hand technology in next gen consoles are true and online where eventually games will be even more expensive than they are now. Remember in the UK and Europe, games are mostly more expensive than they are in the US especially Nintendo stuff being £10 more than the competition and PC games being the cheapest. With a declining market and less places to get games as well as the "no used games" policy, it will mean that more games will be downloaded and I can see more of a split from the cheaper stuff to EA/Activision charging £60+ for their games and more top up cards [more than just PSN/eShop]. Maybe Steam might have top up cards everywhere in the future. There will be less developers in terms of commercial games with some more big names expected to go and also less "big" games that people usually buy e.g. the FIFA/Madden/COD/GTA stuff due to high development costs. Probably there will be more indie developers but the quality will be more inconsistant as the section gets larger* and as for the low-key developers [the ones who develop on the DS/Wii/phones] who make licensed shovelware, they will sadly still be there but luckily will be smaller in volume in the future. People are probably still surprised that there are still DS games around but they are usually licensed games from GSP [they were a cheap PC publisher]. As for the Japanese game market, the games will get either more perverted, more Vocaloid games (Miku), more RPGs (Pokemon will end up like their FIFA/COD, more than now) but stagnation due to the amount of RPGs that are released there but there will be a rise of more quirkier games due to new developers having ideas and taking risks. At least the boxed retail market will still be there.
Luckily for Steam and Valve, that will only get stronger and stronger to the point that they will be either 1st or 2nd place in the next generation.
* - Sort of a repeat of the UK Spectrum games market in its early days before the arcade ports came in where there were new games every week but the quality was all over the place where there were some good looking but highly buggy games or ugly games but played very well and if a developer has a reputation, it can continue. E.g. people are still fond of Jet Set Willy even though it is a buggy game that can't be completed in normal circumstances compared to Manic Miner.
Also the Nintendo is going to save the day scenario does not apply everywhere, it will apply to America and Japan due to the larger fan base but places like Europe, Austrailia, New Zealand, India, China, South America [the later three will be more in the future] I just don't see it happening at all. While it is good that Nintendo is starting to attract the indie developers, Nintendo will have to change some of their ways especially if they want to play people who aren't fans of the company. I mean developers probably have a ton of ideas on Nintendo games but the company will not allow it due to the old guard (Miyamoto would go crazy if WayFoward were going to make a Zelda game or an indie developer to make a new Star Fox game that is like 64). The only way I can see Nintendo doing really well and being a global leader is if people who were burnt out like Miyamoto would leave while some young blood with passion and ambition will take over with new ideas that are risky yet worth the effort. Balance between family friendly fun and maturer/darker games, balance between their IPs [no two similar Mario games in one year] and new games that appeal to more than just the fans. People outside of Japan/US only see Nintendo has the "family friendly fun company that makes Mario and Pokemon all the time" so they need to change, not completely change to be like say modern Capcom or EA style but more like a mix of Treasure, Sony and Valve. Oh and they might have to develop games on non-Nintendo devices (like PCs and phones, not say the PS4) or more eShop titles.
While I don't see consoles completely dying out, they will be more of a niche (more than now, probably something like Wiz/OpenPandora niche) since more people have PCs and phones, the former will be increased by Steam while the latter market will have its bubble bust in a couple of years time. Angry Birds will be gone by 2016 at least due to over saturation. The retail market (as in boxed games) will disappear almost completely apart from a few online sites since currently two retail places are on the verge of closure in the UK and when they go, its going to be supermarkets (one that from looking more or less stopped stocking games except Xbox 360 stuff), Game that probably will go if they aren't careful, lucky enough to find an indie store [there doesn't seem to be one where I live, nearly one is about 12 miles away in a little market town], the dodgy Grainger Games, CeX that will close down if the anti-second hand technology in next gen consoles are true and online where eventually games will be even more expensive than they are now. Remember in the UK and Europe, games are mostly more expensive than they are in the US especially Nintendo stuff being £10 more than the competition and PC games being the cheapest. With a declining market and less places to get games as well as the "no used games" policy, it will mean that more games will be downloaded and I can see more of a split from the cheaper stuff to EA/Activision charging £60+ for their games and more top up cards [more than just PSN/eShop]. Maybe Steam might have top up cards everywhere in the future. There will be less developers in terms of commercial games with some more big names expected to go and also less "big" games that people usually buy e.g. the FIFA/Madden/COD/GTA stuff due to high development costs. Probably there will be more indie developers but the quality will be more inconsistant as the section gets larger* and as for the low-key developers [the ones who develop on the DS/Wii/phones] who make licensed shovelware, they will sadly still be there but luckily will be smaller in volume in the future. People are probably still surprised that there are still DS games around but they are usually licensed games from GSP [they were a cheap PC publisher]. As for the Japanese game market, the games will get either more perverted, more Vocaloid games (Miku), more RPGs (Pokemon will end up like their FIFA/COD, more than now) but stagnation due to the amount of RPGs that are released there but there will be a rise of more quirkier games due to new developers having ideas and taking risks. At least the boxed retail market will still be there.
Luckily for Steam and Valve, that will only get stronger and stronger to the point that they will be either 1st or 2nd place in the next generation.
* - Sort of a repeat of the UK Spectrum games market in its early days before the arcade ports came in where there were new games every week but the quality was all over the place where there were some good looking but highly buggy games or ugly games but played very well and if a developer has a reputation, it can continue. E.g. people are still fond of Jet Set Willy even though it is a buggy game that can't be completed in normal circumstances compared to Manic Miner.
Also the Nintendo is going to save the day scenario does not apply everywhere, it will apply to America and Japan due to the larger fan base but places like Europe, Austrailia, New Zealand, India, China, South America [the later three will be more in the future] I just don't see it happening at all. While it is good that Nintendo is starting to attract the indie developers, Nintendo will have to change some of their ways especially if they want to play people who aren't fans of the company. I mean developers probably have a ton of ideas on Nintendo games but the company will not allow it due to the old guard (Miyamoto would go crazy if WayFoward were going to make a Zelda game or an indie developer to make a new Star Fox game that is like 64). The only way I can see Nintendo doing really well and being a global leader is if people who were burnt out like Miyamoto would leave while some young blood with passion and ambition will take over with new ideas that are risky yet worth the effort. Balance between family friendly fun and maturer/darker games, balance between their IPs [no two similar Mario games in one year] and new games that appeal to more than just the fans. People outside of Japan/US only see Nintendo has the "family friendly fun company that makes Mario and Pokemon all the time" so they need to change, not completely change to be like say modern Capcom or EA style but more like a mix of Treasure, Sony and Valve. Oh and they might have to develop games on non-Nintendo devices (like PCs and phones, not say the PS4) or more eShop titles.