06-11-2013, 01:52 PM
It's time for Crazy Ton's Crazy Theories.
This went really well when Brawl was coming out (Read: No it didn't) so I'm going to give it another go.
A lot of the roster additions hinge on the Mario series getting a new character. Being THE flagship series, I don't see any symbol rocking more characters than the Mushroom. Yoshi has an Egg, Wario has a W, so they don't count. DK and Diddy are their own series as well. So what does that leave us with?
1. Bowser Jr. To me, this is the most likely. He's got staying power. When the last Smash game came out he had only been in Sunshine (and maybe a few sports appearances) so he wasn't quite the heavy-hitter he is now. Since then we've seen Jr. in the NSMB series, Galaxy games, and as Bowser's #2 in several spinoffs. He's been around long enough that some form of non-derivative moveset could be cobbled together.
Positives: A unique character who has been around for a while. He could have some fun stuff with the paint brush or mini clown car or shooting fire balls (as opposed to Bowser's breath). He's also another villain.
Negatives: He's really just a small Bowser. Is he that different from Bowser with a Poison Mushroom? How much of his moveset would be borrowed from his father?
2. Toad. A week ago I wouldn't have listed him, but with the announcement of the generically named "Villager" and "Pokemon Trainer" along with reps who are one out of a species (Yoshi, Pikachu, Lucario, etc.) are now commonplace, so he seems more likely. Starring roles in the NSMB games sure don't hurt.
Positives: He's been around forever and is easily recognizable. He's the only one of Nintendo's "Big Eight" who isn't playable in the Smash series.
Negatives: Almost no moveset to speak of. Peach took the veggie stuff from SMB2 and even in the new SM3DW, all Nintendo lists as Toad' attribute is "He's faster than the others." Who cares? A Toad is also a staple of Peach's moveset, so it could be argued that he's already an established part of the game. He may be a case of someone who is better in theory than practice.
3. Waluigi: At first glance, this seems like a no-brainer. Then we get into the nitty-gritty. As I said above, Wario has his own symbol, and that is the symbol of Wario Ware. His primary costume even shows this. Wario is getting further and further from his Mario roots. Waluigi, on the other hand, has never appeared in a Wario Ware game (Or a main Mario game, come to think of it), and so he would have to be represented in his classic "plumber" costume. His trophy in SSBB has the Mario "Mushroom" symbol, showing that he's closer associated with the Mario games than Wario. That leaves Waluigi in a nebulous area where he's not really a Mario character, but not really a Wario character either.
Positives: He's been in a ton of sports games, he's the Luigi to Mario's Wario, and he's been a trophy already. This is usually a first step to being playable. (See Dedede, Meta Knight, Pit, etc.)
Negatives: He's never been able to develop any moves of his own because he's only been in sports games. He's more closely associated with Wario, but he has never appeared in one of his games and lacks a Wario Ware persona.
4. Paper Mario. He could be like Toon Link. A different version of the same character. The series has been going for more than ten years, so there's plenty to pull from.
Positives: An ongoing series that has constructed its own continuity, own world, and own feel. There is plenty to pick from here, spanning badges, hammers, stickers, paper transformations, partners, and Star Spirits.
Negatives: Not many. The more I think about it, the more likely it seems.
Verdict: If there's a new Mario rep, I think it'll be Paper Mario. Like I said, a lot hinges on this, so keep it in mind.
For the DK series, we really have four options: Cranky, Dixie, Funky, and K. Rool. Cranky, though he is the most prevalent of these three and has the most appearances, he's still an old man who is probably better as a trophy. That leaves us with Funky, Dixie and K. Rool. The pattern so far is to have the Hero, Sidekick, and Villain/Love interest. Mario got both (Bowser and Peach), Star Fox got the villain (Wolf). Zelda has two Links, so if you want to count one as a "sidekick" then it follows the pattern as well. Each of these two is equally viable. Right?
Dixie: She's the fourth most famous Kong and costarred in what is widely thought to be the best DKC game. Fans still like her to this day, and unlike many of the other Kongs, she's stayed in the spotlight, appearing in toys and other merchandise while Chunky, Kiddy and the rest are left to rot. Though Funky has appeared in the Mario Kart series, Dixie has more clout in her home series. Her reappearance in the new Donkey Kong Country game proves this.
Positives: She's still here and she's making a comeback. Nintendo seems to consider her a still-relevant character. She also has at least one skill that the other Kongs don't in her hair. She's had several appearances in home games, side games, and the Smash series and is in a new game. She was rumored to have been cut from Brawl.
Negatives: She's another lightweight monkey, just like Diddy. Does she do anything outside of the ponytail? Does Diddy's jetpack render the ponytail obsolete?
K. Rool: Unlike Dixie, K. Rool hasn't been seen in a main game in a long time. Nintendo seems to be shying away from him, opting for the Tikis and now Vikings instead. He doesn't have merchandise to back him up, though he certainly has the moves.
Positives: K. Rool has loads to do. He has a crown, a gun, a jetpack, boxing gloves, etc. He's also another heavyweight and a villain.
Negatives: He seems to be getting shunned lately. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, considering Sakurai's love of old characters and resurrecting them, but it's not exactly a plus. Do we really need another big fat villain after already having Bowser and Dedede?
Funky: Sure, he appeared in a Mario Kart, and sure he's one of the better-known Kongs in the games. But outside of the fact that he wears shades, there is nothing that differentiates him from DK. hey have the same build, and Funky has never really gotten in on the action.
Positives: Not totally forgotten. He's been in some side games.
Negatives: Like Toad, he has nothing unique going for him. Plus, Diddy better fills the "sidekick" role and he does a better job with it.
Verdict: Dixie, if anyone.
For the Zelda series we've got a weird hybrid of the styles from Skyward Sword and Twilight Princess. Though all three of the heavy-hitters were in TP, Ganondorf was conspicuously absent from SS. He's obviously not getting the K. Rool treatment, as he's a huge part of the mythos and is known to sit out once in a while, but he will need a redesign. This isn't a huge deal, as Sheik was designed from the ground up for Brawl.
Zelda: Undoubtedly will return. Her name is the tile of the franchise. The question is how much of her will be TP and how much will be SS.
Sheik: I'm a little more worried about. We're now almost 20 years removed from Ocarina of time, and two Zelda designs away from the Zelda that was Sheik. Do we get an adapted Sheik specifically made for Smash Bros, or do they retire a character who is no longer a relevant part of the mythos?
Ganondorf: Will undoubtedly return. Probably with a spiffy new getup.
Toon Link: A little tougher. He shows up in the Spirit Tracks stage, but is by all accounts still a relevant version of Link, especially with Wind Waker HD coming out. A really tough call.
Now we come to Pokemon. Let's get this right off the bat: Pikachu isn't going anywhere. Jigglypuff has now been in three games, so I don't think she's going anywhere. That leaves us with two spots. Why two? If you think back to the Mario series, we've got four spots max per franchise. (Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Peach). Though it's a bit tough to tell, those last couple Pokemon spots seem to be "flavor of the month" spots. Pop in something new and popular. Mewtwo became Lucario, and Pokemon Trainer was a new gimmick to try out. I think Lucario is in more danger than Pokemon Trainer, as Lucario's time in the spotlight is over.
Mewtwo: People have been primed for his comeback since Brawl was released. He was no longer relevant when Brawl came out, so he was replaced with the fresh and new Lucario. Since then, Mewtwo has made headlines again with a brand new form. This helps Mewtwo appeal to the classic fans of the series as well as new fans who know the newest generation the most. He's in a prime position to return.
Positives: He's familiar and we know he's made it before. Mewtwo's new form means he's still fresh in the minds of developers and gamers alike.
Negatives: With only four slots to fill, is Mewtwo more popular than Lucario or a fresher face? Will they really allow for nothing but generation one representatives?
Zoroark: And this is why I think Lucario is in danger. He has two people vying for his spot. Zoroark got the Lucario treatment in generation five, becoming the face of the gen and having his own movie.
Positives: He's the newest it-boy. He has a fun gimmick in masking himself as another fighter and that could be used in the game.
Negatives: Is it just me, or was there not as much brouhaha about him as there was Lucario? Plus he's got Mewtwo looking at a spot. We also have the upcoming generation six rep that he might have to look out for. Unless it's Sylveon.
Verdict: I really have no idea. There are a lot of variables here.
Kirby has all of the characters it needs. It theoretically has room for one more, and if so, it'll be Bandana Waddle Dee. Can we all agree on that?
Star Fox is missing the "love interest" character, and I think players are looking for something new from this franchise. Krystal and her staff fill both of those roles. There are other relevant characters in Slippy and Peppy, however.
Krystal: She has staying power. Like Bowser Jr., she's proven her worth in the series and has stuck around since her first game. While she pilots an Arwing like everyone else in the series, she's also shown to be pretty adept on foot with her staff. Dinosaur Planet is still the game people associate her with, for better or worse, so it seems like the right idea. She would probably need a redesign, as the older look with the tribal costume has been retired for the more spacey look in the newer games. Though Star Fox may strike many as a second-tier franchise at best, Fox has been around since Smash's beginning. Plus, if you look at the rosters for the first tier franchises (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, etc) you see that they've really got everyone who matters already. This could be the lesser-known franchises' time to shine.
Positives: She plays differently from every other Star Fox character. She's also female, adding some variety to the roster, and fights with a unique weapon.
Negatives: She's not really relevant, as a Star Fox game seems to be low on Nintendo's list of priorities.
Peppy and Slippy: Fox's friends since the beginning. Unfortunately they don't stand out from the crowd like the brash rogue Falco is and would both be much slower on the ground than their counterparts. Nothing about them lets you assume that they'd play any differently than the characters already in the Smash games, and including one without the other seems arbitrary.
Positives: Staying power. They're legacy characters.
Negatives: Everything. Who wants to play as slower Fox and Falco?
Metroid is all about Samus. With two versions of her, it's difficult to imagine we'd need anyone else. But still, people have been clamoring for Ridley for years.
Ridley: The space dragon. He's cool, he's terrifying, he's Samus's biggest rival. Size isn't really relevant, as Olimar and Bowser are both in with adjusted sizes. So where's the problem?
Positives: Metroid's most recognizable face after its protagonist. He's the Xenomorph to Samus's Ripley.
Negatives: But when you get down to it, what does Ridley offer that Charizard doesn't already? He can fly and shoot fire. They both can. If there's some major reshuffling, I can see Ridley making the cut, but as-is, this story is all about Samus and everything else isn't as important.
Hunters: A bunch of space bounty hunters who appeared in some Metroid games.
Positives: They have names, I guess. And viable movesets.
Negatives: They have zero personality and aside from some cosmetics, each of them plays exactly like all the rest. Nothing sets them apart or makes them interesting.
Verdict: Two Samuses seems like plenty from this franchise.
Kid Icarus: Though Pit is the focus here, we're starting to get something of a supporting cast in Palutena, Hades, and the rest. I didn't play the new game, but I know Sakurai worked on it. This is a double edged sword. On one hand, I'm sure that as someone close to the production of both games, he has some ideas. On the flip side, he might pull a Kirby and not want to include too much of his own series unless specifically asked.
F-Zero: A game I don't know much about, except that Captain Falcon has one thing in common with Samus: He's the only one of note from his series. If we had a second one, it would probably be Samurai Goroh or Black Shadow.
Pikmin: It's less about Olimar than the creatures. Olimar just got there first, so he's the face of the franchise. An argument could be made for Louie, but like Slippy and Peppy, he acts exactly like the existing character, so what's the point?
Mother: This series is over and done with and exists on the same tier as F-Zero. They have their fanbases, but they're not the moneymakers to the casual gamers that Mario and Pokemon are. That said, it's an RPG series, which means there is plenty to pick from it. The main series have all the reps they could ever want, so as I said above, it might be time for the small ones to shine.
Mother 1 cast: They're all expies of the more well-known Mother 2/Earthbound. They're past relevance and should probably stay that way.
Mother 2 cast: Jeff showed up in the last game, but all three other party members were given equal treatment. How do you choose which one to include? This game is being rereleased on Wii finally, but hasn't it been out in Japan on Wii for quite some time? While I love this game, nobody but Ness really rises about the group.
Mother 3 cast: At first, this is in the same boat as Mother 2. The characters are all great, but none is as important as the last. Until you remember the non-party members. While my inner fanboy wants Porky, I think Claus (as the Masked Man) is still the closest thing we have to a real option. Having Lucas without Claus is like including Mario without Luigi. This is a low-tier franchise though, so we'll see.
Fire Emblem: I know nothing of this series except for the fact that we'll be seeing Marth in the new game.
Other Nintendo franchises:
Game and Watch, ROB, Ice climbers, etc. Are all probably going to be fine. How about new stuff?
Balloon Fighter is out. The only thing he's known for is covered by the Villager.
Sukapon is my secret hope, as the star of a fighting game himself.
The most likely seems to be Little Mac. Since Brawl, where he was a trophy, Mac has been in a new game that was well-received, and is known to the world once again. The trailer also includes a boxing ring stage. I've heard two arguments against this theory:
1. It could be Dedede's ring.
No it's not. Look at the crowd. They're humans. While it could be placeholder graphics, I don't think Dedede's ring would look quite so harsh.
2. The symbol on the floor is the Smash symbol, not a Punch Out symbol.
So? The flags in Angel Land also have the Smash symbol on it. That doesn't mean anything.
Non-Nintendo franchises:
Sonic is a given. All of these Wii U exclusives and the buddy-buddy attitude with Nintendo makes it fairly obvious. Plus, his reveal in the last game was huge.
Snake is a little more iffy. I don't follow Metal Gear too closely, but I don't know how many of them have been released on Nintendo consoles since Brawl. There seem to be a lot of internal changes going on with that series, so how that spills over is yet to be seen.
Whew.
This went really well when Brawl was coming out (Read: No it didn't) so I'm going to give it another go.
A lot of the roster additions hinge on the Mario series getting a new character. Being THE flagship series, I don't see any symbol rocking more characters than the Mushroom. Yoshi has an Egg, Wario has a W, so they don't count. DK and Diddy are their own series as well. So what does that leave us with?
1. Bowser Jr. To me, this is the most likely. He's got staying power. When the last Smash game came out he had only been in Sunshine (and maybe a few sports appearances) so he wasn't quite the heavy-hitter he is now. Since then we've seen Jr. in the NSMB series, Galaxy games, and as Bowser's #2 in several spinoffs. He's been around long enough that some form of non-derivative moveset could be cobbled together.
Positives: A unique character who has been around for a while. He could have some fun stuff with the paint brush or mini clown car or shooting fire balls (as opposed to Bowser's breath). He's also another villain.
Negatives: He's really just a small Bowser. Is he that different from Bowser with a Poison Mushroom? How much of his moveset would be borrowed from his father?
2. Toad. A week ago I wouldn't have listed him, but with the announcement of the generically named "Villager" and "Pokemon Trainer" along with reps who are one out of a species (Yoshi, Pikachu, Lucario, etc.) are now commonplace, so he seems more likely. Starring roles in the NSMB games sure don't hurt.
Positives: He's been around forever and is easily recognizable. He's the only one of Nintendo's "Big Eight" who isn't playable in the Smash series.
Negatives: Almost no moveset to speak of. Peach took the veggie stuff from SMB2 and even in the new SM3DW, all Nintendo lists as Toad' attribute is "He's faster than the others." Who cares? A Toad is also a staple of Peach's moveset, so it could be argued that he's already an established part of the game. He may be a case of someone who is better in theory than practice.
3. Waluigi: At first glance, this seems like a no-brainer. Then we get into the nitty-gritty. As I said above, Wario has his own symbol, and that is the symbol of Wario Ware. His primary costume even shows this. Wario is getting further and further from his Mario roots. Waluigi, on the other hand, has never appeared in a Wario Ware game (Or a main Mario game, come to think of it), and so he would have to be represented in his classic "plumber" costume. His trophy in SSBB has the Mario "Mushroom" symbol, showing that he's closer associated with the Mario games than Wario. That leaves Waluigi in a nebulous area where he's not really a Mario character, but not really a Wario character either.
Positives: He's been in a ton of sports games, he's the Luigi to Mario's Wario, and he's been a trophy already. This is usually a first step to being playable. (See Dedede, Meta Knight, Pit, etc.)
Negatives: He's never been able to develop any moves of his own because he's only been in sports games. He's more closely associated with Wario, but he has never appeared in one of his games and lacks a Wario Ware persona.
4. Paper Mario. He could be like Toon Link. A different version of the same character. The series has been going for more than ten years, so there's plenty to pull from.
Positives: An ongoing series that has constructed its own continuity, own world, and own feel. There is plenty to pick from here, spanning badges, hammers, stickers, paper transformations, partners, and Star Spirits.
Negatives: Not many. The more I think about it, the more likely it seems.
Verdict: If there's a new Mario rep, I think it'll be Paper Mario. Like I said, a lot hinges on this, so keep it in mind.
For the DK series, we really have four options: Cranky, Dixie, Funky, and K. Rool. Cranky, though he is the most prevalent of these three and has the most appearances, he's still an old man who is probably better as a trophy. That leaves us with Funky, Dixie and K. Rool. The pattern so far is to have the Hero, Sidekick, and Villain/Love interest. Mario got both (Bowser and Peach), Star Fox got the villain (Wolf). Zelda has two Links, so if you want to count one as a "sidekick" then it follows the pattern as well. Each of these two is equally viable. Right?
Dixie: She's the fourth most famous Kong and costarred in what is widely thought to be the best DKC game. Fans still like her to this day, and unlike many of the other Kongs, she's stayed in the spotlight, appearing in toys and other merchandise while Chunky, Kiddy and the rest are left to rot. Though Funky has appeared in the Mario Kart series, Dixie has more clout in her home series. Her reappearance in the new Donkey Kong Country game proves this.
Positives: She's still here and she's making a comeback. Nintendo seems to consider her a still-relevant character. She also has at least one skill that the other Kongs don't in her hair. She's had several appearances in home games, side games, and the Smash series and is in a new game. She was rumored to have been cut from Brawl.
Negatives: She's another lightweight monkey, just like Diddy. Does she do anything outside of the ponytail? Does Diddy's jetpack render the ponytail obsolete?
K. Rool: Unlike Dixie, K. Rool hasn't been seen in a main game in a long time. Nintendo seems to be shying away from him, opting for the Tikis and now Vikings instead. He doesn't have merchandise to back him up, though he certainly has the moves.
Positives: K. Rool has loads to do. He has a crown, a gun, a jetpack, boxing gloves, etc. He's also another heavyweight and a villain.
Negatives: He seems to be getting shunned lately. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, considering Sakurai's love of old characters and resurrecting them, but it's not exactly a plus. Do we really need another big fat villain after already having Bowser and Dedede?
Funky: Sure, he appeared in a Mario Kart, and sure he's one of the better-known Kongs in the games. But outside of the fact that he wears shades, there is nothing that differentiates him from DK. hey have the same build, and Funky has never really gotten in on the action.
Positives: Not totally forgotten. He's been in some side games.
Negatives: Like Toad, he has nothing unique going for him. Plus, Diddy better fills the "sidekick" role and he does a better job with it.
Verdict: Dixie, if anyone.
For the Zelda series we've got a weird hybrid of the styles from Skyward Sword and Twilight Princess. Though all three of the heavy-hitters were in TP, Ganondorf was conspicuously absent from SS. He's obviously not getting the K. Rool treatment, as he's a huge part of the mythos and is known to sit out once in a while, but he will need a redesign. This isn't a huge deal, as Sheik was designed from the ground up for Brawl.
Zelda: Undoubtedly will return. Her name is the tile of the franchise. The question is how much of her will be TP and how much will be SS.
Sheik: I'm a little more worried about. We're now almost 20 years removed from Ocarina of time, and two Zelda designs away from the Zelda that was Sheik. Do we get an adapted Sheik specifically made for Smash Bros, or do they retire a character who is no longer a relevant part of the mythos?
Ganondorf: Will undoubtedly return. Probably with a spiffy new getup.
Toon Link: A little tougher. He shows up in the Spirit Tracks stage, but is by all accounts still a relevant version of Link, especially with Wind Waker HD coming out. A really tough call.
Now we come to Pokemon. Let's get this right off the bat: Pikachu isn't going anywhere. Jigglypuff has now been in three games, so I don't think she's going anywhere. That leaves us with two spots. Why two? If you think back to the Mario series, we've got four spots max per franchise. (Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Peach). Though it's a bit tough to tell, those last couple Pokemon spots seem to be "flavor of the month" spots. Pop in something new and popular. Mewtwo became Lucario, and Pokemon Trainer was a new gimmick to try out. I think Lucario is in more danger than Pokemon Trainer, as Lucario's time in the spotlight is over.
Mewtwo: People have been primed for his comeback since Brawl was released. He was no longer relevant when Brawl came out, so he was replaced with the fresh and new Lucario. Since then, Mewtwo has made headlines again with a brand new form. This helps Mewtwo appeal to the classic fans of the series as well as new fans who know the newest generation the most. He's in a prime position to return.
Positives: He's familiar and we know he's made it before. Mewtwo's new form means he's still fresh in the minds of developers and gamers alike.
Negatives: With only four slots to fill, is Mewtwo more popular than Lucario or a fresher face? Will they really allow for nothing but generation one representatives?
Zoroark: And this is why I think Lucario is in danger. He has two people vying for his spot. Zoroark got the Lucario treatment in generation five, becoming the face of the gen and having his own movie.
Positives: He's the newest it-boy. He has a fun gimmick in masking himself as another fighter and that could be used in the game.
Negatives: Is it just me, or was there not as much brouhaha about him as there was Lucario? Plus he's got Mewtwo looking at a spot. We also have the upcoming generation six rep that he might have to look out for. Unless it's Sylveon.
Verdict: I really have no idea. There are a lot of variables here.
Kirby has all of the characters it needs. It theoretically has room for one more, and if so, it'll be Bandana Waddle Dee. Can we all agree on that?
Star Fox is missing the "love interest" character, and I think players are looking for something new from this franchise. Krystal and her staff fill both of those roles. There are other relevant characters in Slippy and Peppy, however.
Krystal: She has staying power. Like Bowser Jr., she's proven her worth in the series and has stuck around since her first game. While she pilots an Arwing like everyone else in the series, she's also shown to be pretty adept on foot with her staff. Dinosaur Planet is still the game people associate her with, for better or worse, so it seems like the right idea. She would probably need a redesign, as the older look with the tribal costume has been retired for the more spacey look in the newer games. Though Star Fox may strike many as a second-tier franchise at best, Fox has been around since Smash's beginning. Plus, if you look at the rosters for the first tier franchises (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, etc) you see that they've really got everyone who matters already. This could be the lesser-known franchises' time to shine.
Positives: She plays differently from every other Star Fox character. She's also female, adding some variety to the roster, and fights with a unique weapon.
Negatives: She's not really relevant, as a Star Fox game seems to be low on Nintendo's list of priorities.
Peppy and Slippy: Fox's friends since the beginning. Unfortunately they don't stand out from the crowd like the brash rogue Falco is and would both be much slower on the ground than their counterparts. Nothing about them lets you assume that they'd play any differently than the characters already in the Smash games, and including one without the other seems arbitrary.
Positives: Staying power. They're legacy characters.
Negatives: Everything. Who wants to play as slower Fox and Falco?
Metroid is all about Samus. With two versions of her, it's difficult to imagine we'd need anyone else. But still, people have been clamoring for Ridley for years.
Ridley: The space dragon. He's cool, he's terrifying, he's Samus's biggest rival. Size isn't really relevant, as Olimar and Bowser are both in with adjusted sizes. So where's the problem?
Positives: Metroid's most recognizable face after its protagonist. He's the Xenomorph to Samus's Ripley.
Negatives: But when you get down to it, what does Ridley offer that Charizard doesn't already? He can fly and shoot fire. They both can. If there's some major reshuffling, I can see Ridley making the cut, but as-is, this story is all about Samus and everything else isn't as important.
Hunters: A bunch of space bounty hunters who appeared in some Metroid games.
Positives: They have names, I guess. And viable movesets.
Negatives: They have zero personality and aside from some cosmetics, each of them plays exactly like all the rest. Nothing sets them apart or makes them interesting.
Verdict: Two Samuses seems like plenty from this franchise.
Kid Icarus: Though Pit is the focus here, we're starting to get something of a supporting cast in Palutena, Hades, and the rest. I didn't play the new game, but I know Sakurai worked on it. This is a double edged sword. On one hand, I'm sure that as someone close to the production of both games, he has some ideas. On the flip side, he might pull a Kirby and not want to include too much of his own series unless specifically asked.
F-Zero: A game I don't know much about, except that Captain Falcon has one thing in common with Samus: He's the only one of note from his series. If we had a second one, it would probably be Samurai Goroh or Black Shadow.
Pikmin: It's less about Olimar than the creatures. Olimar just got there first, so he's the face of the franchise. An argument could be made for Louie, but like Slippy and Peppy, he acts exactly like the existing character, so what's the point?
Mother: This series is over and done with and exists on the same tier as F-Zero. They have their fanbases, but they're not the moneymakers to the casual gamers that Mario and Pokemon are. That said, it's an RPG series, which means there is plenty to pick from it. The main series have all the reps they could ever want, so as I said above, it might be time for the small ones to shine.
Mother 1 cast: They're all expies of the more well-known Mother 2/Earthbound. They're past relevance and should probably stay that way.
Mother 2 cast: Jeff showed up in the last game, but all three other party members were given equal treatment. How do you choose which one to include? This game is being rereleased on Wii finally, but hasn't it been out in Japan on Wii for quite some time? While I love this game, nobody but Ness really rises about the group.
Mother 3 cast: At first, this is in the same boat as Mother 2. The characters are all great, but none is as important as the last. Until you remember the non-party members. While my inner fanboy wants Porky, I think Claus (as the Masked Man) is still the closest thing we have to a real option. Having Lucas without Claus is like including Mario without Luigi. This is a low-tier franchise though, so we'll see.
Fire Emblem: I know nothing of this series except for the fact that we'll be seeing Marth in the new game.
Other Nintendo franchises:
Game and Watch, ROB, Ice climbers, etc. Are all probably going to be fine. How about new stuff?
Balloon Fighter is out. The only thing he's known for is covered by the Villager.
Sukapon is my secret hope, as the star of a fighting game himself.
The most likely seems to be Little Mac. Since Brawl, where he was a trophy, Mac has been in a new game that was well-received, and is known to the world once again. The trailer also includes a boxing ring stage. I've heard two arguments against this theory:
1. It could be Dedede's ring.
No it's not. Look at the crowd. They're humans. While it could be placeholder graphics, I don't think Dedede's ring would look quite so harsh.
2. The symbol on the floor is the Smash symbol, not a Punch Out symbol.
So? The flags in Angel Land also have the Smash symbol on it. That doesn't mean anything.
Non-Nintendo franchises:
Sonic is a given. All of these Wii U exclusives and the buddy-buddy attitude with Nintendo makes it fairly obvious. Plus, his reveal in the last game was huge.
Snake is a little more iffy. I don't follow Metal Gear too closely, but I don't know how many of them have been released on Nintendo consoles since Brawl. There seem to be a lot of internal changes going on with that series, so how that spills over is yet to be seen.
Whew.